(Dan Tri) – Despite being prosecuted and having legal troubles, former President Trump is still supported by voters and senior members of the Republican Party, placing confidence in his run for the US presidency.
Former President Donald Trump appeared in court in New York on April 4 (Photo: AP).
On April 4, Mr. Donald Trump became the first former President in US history to be criminally prosecuted.
But many Republican officials seemed hesitant to attack the former President and instead targeted Manhattan district attorney Alvin Bragg, the man behind the criminal investigation targeting Mr. Trump.
It is clear that American politics is in an unprecedented situation and political realities may change following the indictment.
Mr. Trump’s lead in the 2024 Republican primary polls continued to consolidate and grow in the last month as an indictment emerged.
Recent polls from Fox News, Monmouth University and Quinnipiac University also show how Mr. Trump’s prospects among the Republican Party in the primaries have improved markedly.
According to a Quinnipiac poll, released last week, only 18% of registered Republican voters think the allegations against Mr. Trump in the `hush money` payment to porn star Stormy Daniels in
Although the recently announced indictment is a real (and not just a potential) event and may change some opinions, this does not have as much of an impact as one might think.
Most Republicans (and in fact a majority of voters polled) in the same Quinnipiac poll said the prosecutor who brought those charges (Mr. Bragg) was biased
Indeed, when it comes to any indictments, Republicans appear to have adopted a position that favors Mr. Trump.
In addition to the criminal indictment in New York, surveys also show that a majority of Republicans polled believe Mr. Trump is not guilty of his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results. Similarly, the poll found
Similar views
However, the group of Republicans who believe that the investigations are politically motivated is only part of what is happening on a large scale today.
The picture can be pictured like this: Republicans may think Mr. Trump is innocent, but at the same time believe that his legal problems could harm the former President in the 2024 general election.
In the most recent CNN/SSRS poll, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents indicated that 41% of party members preferred a candidate who could defeat President Joe Biden (
This is a big difference compared to what happened in the 2020 Democratic primary election.
In other words, for Democratic voters, Mr. Biden needs to be a candidate who can win the election, while Mr. Trump for Republicans does not.
This may be the reason Mr. Trump is still leading, even though the majority of Republicans believe their best chance to defeat Mr. Biden lies with other potential candidates, not Mr. Trump.
According to a Marist poll from February, 54% of Republicans think that a candidate other than Mr. Trump will provide the party’s best chance in its strategy to win back the White House in 2024.
Of course, Republican voters may not miscalculate in the next election.
Even with all the potential problems with his ability to win, Mr. Trump is now ahead of Mr. Biden in more polls for the 2024 general election than when the former President was completely surpassed in the election.
The big question going forward is what will happen when Mr. Trump is indicted?
It is impossible to know the exact answer, but according to experts, the US political environment will not seriously affect Mr. Trump in next year’s Republican primary election.